The odds of a recession in the US are tumbling, if a JPMorgan trading model is to be believed. With the exception of base metals, pricing of major markets suggest even odds, or less, after the US economy shrank for a second straight quarter. The S&P 500 implies a 51% probability of recession — down from 91% two months ago. But not everyone is convinced the worst is over. Here's why the five gloomiest forecasters in a Bloomberg survey expect the US economy to keep shrinking.
(Bloomberg Markets - Economics | Aug 1)