Markets are watching inflation readings from several countries to see whether price pressures have peaked. In the US, the consumer price index is projected to show an 8.8% annual gain in July after rising 9.1% the previous month. China, France, Germany and Brazil also release CPI data.
Recession recedes. The odds of a recession in the US are tumbling, if a JPMorgan trading model is to be believed. With the exception of base metals, pricing of major markets suggest even odds, or less, after the US economy shrank for a second straight quarter. The S&P 500 implies a 51% probability of recession — down from 91% two months ago. But not everyone is convinced the worst is over. Here’s why the five gloomiest forecasters in a Bloomberg survey expect the US economy to keep shrinking. See also: Here’s what the six key official indicators of US recession show (Bloomberg Markets - Economics | Aug 1)
Mon Aug 1 Tory members begin voting in UK. | Tue Aug 2 Asean gathering. | Wed Aug 3 OPEC+ meeting on output. | Thu Aug 4 BOE rate decision. Climate change in the Senate. | Fri Aug 5 US payrolls report. In a still-tight labor market, the monthly US payrolls report Friday is expected to show a gain of 250,000 jobs for July, while the unemployment rateis seen holding at 3.6%. The OPEC+ group of oil producers, which includes Russia, convenes to decide on output plans for September. Voting starts, and campaigning continues, in the UK’s race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to be in the Asia-Pacific region, with an itinerary including stops in Indonesia, Japan and Singapore, according to people familiar with the situation. It’s unclear whether her visit will include Taiwan.
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