Week InReview: March 22, 2019

The Fed Has Settled on `It's Complicated' View

(Mar 21) — The FOMC has come and it has gone. Depending on how you use the word, it is impossible not to be simultaneously quite impressed and decidedly unimpressed. They went further than almost anyone expected.

Don't listen to the Monday morning quarterbacks try to tell you that it makes perfect sense. After all, the economy is slowing.

Just look at the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. And they are doing a solid for the rest of the world. On the other hand, they have made it quite clear that they are the ones converging with the market. Not only in their rate expectations but in the understanding that there is little reason to put a lot of faith in their ability to forecast.

— Trader's Notes, Bloomberg Government

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