Briefings

Archive April 2025

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Week InAdvance: April 28, 2025

Mon Apr 28 Canada’s federal election. | Tue Apr 29 BIS, BoE, ECB, IMF joint forum. ECB conference. | Wed Apr 30 US GDP, PCE price index. China official PMIs. 50th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam war. | Thu May 1 May Day observed. European markets closed except UK. Bank of Japan rate decision. | Fri May 2 US payrolls. 80th anniversary of Soviet troops capturing Berlin during WWII. | Sat May 3 25 percent US tariff on imported car parts due to become effective. | Sun Apr May 4 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills draws investors, government officials.

 

 

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Week InReview: April 25, 2025

Fed June rate move in play.

Bank of America strategists say investors should sell into rallies in US stocks and the dollar, cautioning that the conditions for sustained gains are missing.

 

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack ruled out a May interest-rate cut but said the central bank could move as early as June if it has clear evidence of the economy’s direction. And Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he’d support rate cuts if there’s a significant rise in unemployment.

 

A number of hedge funds are trying to figure out how to make money on low-carbon investments that appear resilient to White House energy policies. Their preferred assets are generally located outside the US, including utilities and grid-equipment providers, money managers said. At the same time, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright sought to reassure US oil companies that turmoil from a trade war is apt to be fleeting. Oil looks set for a weekly loss.

 

The US is right that global trade imbalances need to be addressed, but it should be using multilateral institutions like the IMF to reform the system, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said. And Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the UK economy is not close to recession, even as US tariffs have a chilling effect. UK household confidence is now at its lowest level since the Labour government came to power.

 

US stocks rose to their highest since the US announced its tariff offensive as investors bet the Federal Reserve could cut rates sooner than anticipated. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’d support rate cuts if aggressive tariff levels hurt the job market. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the central bank could cut rates as early as June. Treasuries rallied.

 

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Week InAdvance: April 21, 2025

Mon Apr 21 Much of Europe celebrates Easter Monday with markets closed. IMF-World Bank spring meetings. The 129th Boston Marathon on Patriots’ Day. WEF annual meeting in Davos. | Tue Apr 22 Earth Day. Bretton Woods summit. | Wed Apr 23 Fed's 'Beige Book.' MSRB board meeting. | Thu Apr 24 OECD infrastructure governance forum. 8th annual Cannes global TV festival opens | Fri Apr 25 EC's crypto panel meets. Russia rate decision.

 

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Week InReview: April 18, 2025

US stocks resume sharp declines.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, right, speaks with Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance at the University of Chicago, during an Economic Club of Chicago event on April 16. Photo: Vincent Alban via Getty Images

US stocks resumed sharp declines after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on hopes the central bank would act quickly on rate cuts to soothe investors. Technology shares bore the brunt of the beating. The dollar continued to weaken, while Treasuries gained and gold surged more than 3%.

 

US retail sales surged 1.4% in March from the previous month, their biggest jump in more than two years, as consumers rushed to make major purchases of cars, electronics and appliances in an attempt to get ahead of tariffs.

 

The offshore yuan delivered its first gain against the dollar this week ahead of Swift payments data and after Cahina said it was open to trade talks with the US if the administration agrees to a number of requests, including appointing a point person to help prepare a deal.

 

On the tariff front, the White House claimed negotiators made “big progress” after a meeting with a Japanese trade delegation. Meanwhile, the administration is preparing to pressure other nations that are looking for reductions or exemptions from tariffs to curb their trade with China as part of negotiations, Bloomberg reported.

 

Chinese refiners are importing record amounts of Canadian crude after cutting purchases of US oil by about 90% amid escalating trade tensions.

 

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Week InAdvance: April 14, 2025

Mon Apr 14 EU foreign ministers meet. | Tue Apr 15 US federal income tax deadline. | Wed Apr 16 Chinese GDP. Canada rate decision. WTO releases global trade forecasts.. | Thu Apr 17 Eurozone rate decision. South Korea rate decision. NY Fed's forum on cyber risk to financial stability. | Fri Apr 18 Good Friday, a market holiday in many countries, including the US. | Sat Apr 19 250th anniversary of the beginning of the American Revolutionary War. | Sun Apr 20 Pope Francis celebrates Easter Sunday Mass in Vatican City.

 

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Week InReview: April 11, 2025

Market turmoil hits dollar.

The dollar emerged as the latest victim of this week’s market turmoil as the worsening trade war risks derailing the US economy. A gauge of the greenback tumbled to a fresh six-month low overnight, and stock-index futures swung between gains and losses.

 

The euro surges to a three-year high against the dollar as investors seek havens and non-US alternatives. The yen also rallies while gold hits a fresh record. Stocks in Asia drop while US and European equity futures edge up after the S&P 500 fell 3.5% Thursday.

 

US Treasuries slide as their safe-haven status is now being questioned. China may be selling Treasuries in retaliation against higher US tariffs, according to a note from SMBC Nikko Securities.

 

The cost of hedging against further slides in the US dollar climbed to the highest since the Covid pandemic shuttered cities in early 2020.

 

US leveraged-loan funds had their biggest-ever weekly outflow as investors dump corporate debt across the board on concern that the tariff-spurred market turmoil will hit the economy.

 

 

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Week InAdvance: April 7, 2025

Mon Apr 7 UN World Health Day. European Union meeting of trade ministers on US tariffs. | Tue Apr 8 House task force meets on US Treasury debt in the monetary system. | Wed Apr 9 US FOMC minutes. India rate decision. New Zealand rate decision. | Thu Apr 10 US CPI. ECB’s quiet period starts before its April 17 rate decision. | Fri Apr 11 Major banks reporting earnings include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo. | Sat Apr 12 Passover, the Jewish holiday marking the account of the Israelites’ exodus from slavery in Egypt, begins this evening. | Sun Apr 13 Vatican City: Pope Francis marks Palm Sunday in St. Peter’s Square.

 

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Week InReview: April 4, 2025

Stocks slide further.

Stocks are sliding further, adding to losses after a $2.5 trillion wipeout of US equities. Treasuries rallied, pushing 10-year crops below 4% once more, and the dollar steadied.

 

The US probably added 140,000 new jobs in March, a slowdown from the prior month yet a still-healthy pace of hiring. The report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

 

Wall Street rebelled against the US trade war, sending US stocks down about 5% — the worst daily loss since 2020 — and erasing all the dollar’s gains since the US election. All of the greenback’s Group-of-10 peers rallied — led by the Japanese yen and Swiss franc as traders sought havens.

 

Treasuries gained, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year falling briefly below 4% for the first time since October. Money markets fully priced in three quarter-point interest-rate cuts this year, with about a 50% chance of a fourth.

 

Oil fell sharply on the twin hit of US tariffs and OPEC+’s shock announcement that it was increasing supply by three times the planned amount in May. Delegates described the cartel’s move as a deliberate effort to drive down prices.

 

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