Coming up.

A short truce between Israel and Hamas will begin this morning. A four-day ceasefire in Gaza will start at 7 am local time, while a first group of women and children hostages will be released by Hamas around 4 pm. Hamas is set to free 50 hostages in total, while Israel is meant to release 150 jailed Palestinians. All of the 200 will be women and children. Photographer: Kobi Wolf/Bloomberg

Japan reports national CPI today in what could be a key moment for the yen, which has been holding at a stronger level than 150 per dollar for the past few days. The median forecast is that core inflation slowed, but the headline rate rose to 3.4%. Economists expect Sri Lanka’s central bank to cut rates by 75 basis points, which would add up to 625 basis points of reductions in just under six months. Malaysia is expected to report inflation remained unchanged at 1.9% in October.

Oil tanks.

Oil plummeted to the lowest since July as trend-following trades accelerated losses that were kicked off by swelling inventories and the failure of key technical support levels. Algorithms were partly behind the move along with several selling programs, causing a vicious cycle.

Powell vows no hesitation.

Protesters interrupt a speech by Jerome Powell, chair of the US Federal Reserve, left, during the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference in Washington, DC on Thursday, Nov. 9, 2023. Photo: Ting Shen | Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank won’t hesitate to tighten policy further if appropriate and reiterated that the central bank isn’t fully confident it has tightened enough to return inflation to 2%. The central bank will move carefully, he told an audience at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, to avoid the risk of overtightening. Shortly after he began to speak, Powell was ushered from the room as a group of environmental protesters jumped onto the stage with a banner. 

Stocks fizzle: The rally in stocks sputtered on Thursday as Europe’s Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.3% and US equity futures traded flat. Oil hovered near a three-month low after plunging almost 7% over the previous two sessions. Yields on 10-year Treasuries held below 4.5%.

Subduing inflation.

For a lesson in the real-time pitfalls of Federal Reserve messaging, consider the market reaction to Jerome Powell’s commentary on the role of Wall Street in subduing inflation. Stocks and Treasuries rose after the central bank held interest rates steady and the Fed chair name-checked rising bond yields in helping to tighten financial conditions — potentially serving as a substitute for additional interest-rate hikes down the road.