Archive April 2023

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Week InReview: April 28, 2023

Tweet of the week.


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Week InAdvance: April 24, 2023

Mon Apr 24 Lyrids meteor shower. | Tue Apr 25 Belt and Road forum in Beijing. | Wed Apr 26 MSRB board meeting. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at the White House. | Thu Apr 27 US GDP. | Fri Apr 28 EU finmins and central bank guvs in Stockholm. Bank of Japan meets on interest rates.


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Week InReview: April 21, 2023

let's recap...

Illustration: Midjourney | Financial Times

Analysts spot a red flag not seen since 2007 coming for the corporate bond market

Last month’s banking drama means a technical tidal wave may be coming for the biggest slice of the $10 trillion market for corporate bonds. That’s according to TD Securities, where analysts are predicting that banks’ collective higher cost of funding will curb appetite for higher-quality credit and eventually force a spike in risk premiums. (Bloomberg Markets | Apr 19)


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Week InAdvance: April 17, 2023

Mon Apr 17 NOCCA23. Boston Marathon. Fox-Dominion trial. | Tue Apr 18 EU leaders meet on future financial regs. US federal tax day. | Wed Apr 19 Beige Book. | Thu Apr 20 Solar eclipse in the southern hemisphere. | Fri Apr 21 FSOC meeting. The Muslim festival of Eid marks the end of Ramadan; financial markets closed in several Middle Eastern countries including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. | Sat Apr 22 Earth Day. | Sun Apr 23 London Marathon.


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Week InReview: April 14, 2023

Fed aftermath.

US equity futures and European stocks rose as investors weighed the path of Fed interest-rate increases for the rest of 2023. Minutes of the Fed’s March meeting signaled officials appear on track to extend their run of hikes when they meet next month, while staff advisers forecast a “mild recession” later this year. Economists see the most likely outcome as a quarter-point increase in May, followed by an extended pause. But the language in the minutes, coupled with some officials’ comments and a still-uncertain outlook for the impact of credit tightening on the economy, point to a rate path that m ay not be fully settled.


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Week InAdvance: April 10, 2023

Mon Apr 10 IMF/World Bank meetings begin. Financial markets closed in Canada, Australia, Hong Kong, and most of Europe for Easter Monday. | Tue Apr 11 IMF world economic outlook, global fiancial stability reports. | Wed Apr 12 FOMC minutes. US CPI. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in DC. | Thu Apr 13 IIF sustainable finance roundtable. | Fri Apr 14 Some Eastern European financial markets, including those in Romania and Greece, closed for Orthodox Good Friday. | Sun Apr 16 G7 foreign ministers meet in Japan to discuss issues such as Ukraine and China.


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Week InReview: April 7, 2023

Skeleton crew.

This week brings a relatively rare economic constellation: March’s US payrolls print lands on a public holiday, creating a small tear in the time-space continuum. Treasuries will trade just half a day, while the US equity market is shut.


The non-farm payrolls print completes a trifecta of labor market data this week, and the stakes are high. Job openings fell below 10 million for the first time since 2021, while just 145,000 private payrolls were added last month, according to the ADP Research Institute — below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.


The NFP figures take on an added importance given Friday’s print marks a full year of payrolls reports since the Federal Reserve’s liftoff hike last March. While signs of tightening have cropped up across the economy — for instance, in the banking system and the housing market — the American workforce has been remarkably resilient.


Friday’s numbers aren’t expected to show any signs of a slowdown. Consensus says that the US added 235,000 jobs in March, with the unemployment rate expected to stay put at a historically low 3.5%.


The fun part will be watching how incredibly thin markets digest the data. Liquidity is already an issue in the Treasury market — now add holiday trading conditions.


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Week InAdvance: April 3, 2023

Mon Apr 3 Macron & von der Leyen in Beijing. | Tue Apr 4 EU-US Energy Council Ministerial meeting. | Wed Apr 5 CFTC panel meets. Taiwan's President in the House. Jewish festival of Passover begins. China/Hong Kong/Taiwan: financial markets shut for the three-day Ching Ming festival. | Thu Apr 6 Maundy Thursday. | Fri Apr 7 Good Friday. US stock and bond markets closed, US government open. UK financial markets closed. US monthly payrolls report. | Sat Apr 8 Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s term of office ends. | Sun Apr 9 Easter Sunday celebrated by western Christian churches. Palm Sunday in the Orthodox church.


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