Briefings

Archive November 2022

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Week InReview: November 25, 2022

Fed slowdown.

Most Federal Reserve officials believe the central banks should slow the pace of interest rate hikes, minutes from its latest gathering earlier this month showed. The minutes, released Wednesday, support expectations the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points in December, ending a run of jumbo 75 basis point increases. Stocks rallied and the dollar fell toward a three-month low on the news.

Week InAdvance: November 21, 2022

Mon Nov 21 US Supreme Court releases an order list. | Tue Nov 22 OECD publishes latest Economic Outlook. | Wed Nov 23 FOMC meeting minutes. | Thu Nov 24 Thanksgiving Day in US. Stock, bond markets closed. EU energy ministers meet. | Fri Nov 25 US stock, bond markets close early. Black Friday sales day.

 

Markets will seek clues on the pace of US interest-rate hikes as the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its November meeting, where officials tightened policy by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. 

 

Central banks in Israel, New Zealand, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Sweden, and Turkey are among those setting monetary policy. Closely watched Purchasing Managers’ Index survey data for Europe’s biggest economies are released. 

 

US stock and bond markets are closed on Thursday as Americans celebrate Thanksgiving. That’s followed by Black Friday, the traditional start to the US holiday shopping season.

Week InReview: November 18, 2022

Pain point.

Asian stock markets looked poised for a cautious open as Federal Reserve officials warned of more pain to come as they raise interest rates to fight inflation. Equity futures indicated tepid moves as trading starts in Australia and Japan after the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 declined for the second straight session. Contracts for Hong Kong were higher after a gauge of US-listed Chinese shares notched its fifth gain in six days as investors react to more market-friendly policy signals from Beijing.

Week InAdvance: November 14, 2022

Mon Nov 14 Hedge funds’ 13F filings for third quarter. | Tue Nov 15 G20 summit. | Wed Nov 16 Treasury Market conference. | Thu Nov 17 OECD global forum. | Fri Nov 18 Basel Committee meets.

 

G20 leaders meet in Bali, Indonesia, as geopolitical tensions increase, the war in Ukraine rages, and inflation pinches consumers. US President Joe Biden plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit on Monday in the pair’s first sit-down as leaders. Facing the cold shoulder, Russia’s Vladimir Putin will not attend.

 

The UK updates markets on its fiscal plans in a week of reckoning following the collapse of Liz Truss’s administration. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt on Thursday presents the medium-term outlook accompanied by updated economic forecasts. He’ll try to further restore investor confidence after his predecessor’s announcement of unfunded tax cuts created panic in markets.

 

COP27 climate talks continue through Friday in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. Investors are monitoring financial pledges and any agreement on funding for poorer nations suffering loss and damage from global warming.

Week InReview: November 11, 2022

What a relief it was.

Stocks skyrocketed in a buy-everything relief rally after slower-than-projected price growth spurred bets that the Federal Reserve can downshift its aggressive rate-hike path. The S&P 500 climbed 5.5% and Treasuries soared, sending the rate on two-year notes, more sensitive to monetary policy, down 25 basis points.

 

Rates traders downgraded the odds of another three-quarter-point rate increase in December almost to nil. The stocks rally is set to roll on in Asia, with futures for for Hong Kong, Japan and Australia all pointing to large gains.

 

US inflation fell in October by more than forecast, perhaps giving the Federal Reserve room to maneuver as it considers smaller interest-rate hikes, something it has said was possible in the coming months. More importantly for the central bank, the core measure that excludes food and energy also slowed more anticipated.

Week InAdvance: November 7, 2022

Mon Nov 7 Eurozone FinMins meet in Brussels. | Tue Nov 8 US midterm elections. Ecofin (all FinMins) meet in Brussels. | Wed Nov 9 FinMins reflect their commitment to climate action at COP27. | Thu Nov 10 US CPI data for October. | Fri Nov 11 Veterans Day in the US. Paris Peace Forum begins. | Sun Nov 13 Remembrance Sunday in the UK.

Americans head to the polls on Tuesday for midterm elections to decide control of both chambers of Congress, the governorship in 36 states, and countless other local races and ballot initiatives. Democrats risk losing their House majority to Republicans but are seeking to keep their narrow hold on the Senate.

 

Markets will watch the latest US inflation reading on Thursday after the core consumer price index rose more than forecast to a 40-year high in September. Even if prices begin to moderate, the CPI is far above the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone.

 

COP27, the first United Nations climate change conference to be held in Africa in six years, started Sunday in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm El-Sheikh. The summit takes place in the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has sparked global food and energy supply crises. 

Week InReview: November 4, 2022

Down again.

Photo: Richard Drew | Associated Press

Renewed fears that Federal Reserve interest rate hikes may trigger a global recession looked set to weigh on Asian stocks Friday, with equity futures for Japan pointing to a hefty drop after the S&P 500 saw its fourth straight decline. The slump in stocks came as a key segment of the Treasury yield curve reached new extremes of inversion, touching a level not seen since the 1980s. The Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said turmoil hitting the UK this year is worse in economic terms than anything that struck in the 1970s.

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