Briefings

Archive October 2022

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Week InAdvance: October 31, 2022

Mon Oct 31 Halloween takes place in US and, increasingly, elsewhere. | Wed Nov 2 SEC meets on reporting & disclosure. FOMC rate decision. | Thu Nov 3 Bank of England rate decision, news conference with Governor Andrew Bailey. | Fri Nov 4 US employment report for October.

 

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday for the fourth straight meeting as US central bankers seek to cool the hottest inflation in four decades. Some policymakers have suggested rates may need to go as high as 5% next year and stay there for some time.

 

The Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia also have policy decisions this week. BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill has signaled that rates are likely to rise sharply in November.

 

The US labor market is in focus on Friday. Employers are expected to have added about 200,000 jobs in October on the heels of September’s report, which showed some moderation in payroll creation but still steady growth.

 

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Week InReview: October 28, 2022

Tweet of the week.

Click graphic to read the IMF blog.

 

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Week InAdvance: October 24, 2022

The SEC is set to approve long-delayed rules intended to stop bonuses that senior managers get when companies publish erroneous financial reports. The SEC will vote to adopt final clawback regulations mandated by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act on Oct. 26.

 

The US government’s first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday will provide clues about the economy’s path as the Federal Reserve continues jumbo rate hikes to tamp down prices. 

 

European Central Bank officials, grappling with inflation near 10%, are expected to repeat September’s three-quarter-point boost to rates when they meet Thursday. Policymakers in Canada, Japan, Russia and Brazil also set interest rates.

 

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Week InReview: October 21, 2022

Keeping cautious.

Passengers embark a Shinkansen bullet train in Tokyo, Japan. Photo: Soichiro Koriyama | Bloomberg

.Stocks in Asia look poised for a cautious open after another down day for US equities, with Treasury yields at the highest level since the global financial crisis. Wariness around economic challenges saw the S&P 500 swing from a gain of more than 1% to an almost equivalent loss. Meanwhile, the yen weakened past the 150 per dollar level and hit a fresh 32-year low, boosting speculation that more intervention will be needed to support the Japanese currency. And China’s yuan is expected to weaken further after the Communist Party Congress ends this weekend, as the central bank loosens its grip on the currency.

 

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Week InAdvance: October 17, 2022

With earnings in full swing, investors will seek guidance on companies’ growth prospects against the backdrop of a strong US dollar, high inflation and recession concerns. Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.are among banks posting results. 

 

The US housing market will also be in focus, with economists forecasting existing-home sales to drop for an eighth straight month — matching the longest string of declines since the housing market crashed in 2007.

 

China’s 20th Party Congress is expected to secure a landmark third term in power for President Xi Jinping

 

The UK releases inflation figures for September following its recent gilt-market turmoil triggered by the government’s package of unfunded tax cuts.  

 

 

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Week InReview: October 14, 2022


Inflation is spreading deeper into the US economy, slamming the door on hopes the Federal Reserve will dial back interest-rate hikes that threaten to tip the country into recession. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, jumped to a 40-year high of 6.6% in September from a year ago, triggering a slide in US bond markets as investors bet the Fed will be forced into two more 75 basis-point increases this year. Stocks plunged and then rallied, making for a dizzying day on Wall Street, while the yen hit a 30-year low before it too rebounded. A key measure of US mortgage rates soared to a 20-year high just shy of 7% — and some are warning they could go much higher. Asian equities are poised for gains.

 

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Week InAdvance: October 10, 2022

Mon Oct 10 US bond market closed in observance of Columbus Day/Indigenous People’s Day. The stock market will be open. Canadian financial markets closed in observance of Thanksgiving. | Tue Oct 11 Japan opens visa-free travel to vaccinated tourists. | Wed Oct 12 G20 finmins in DC. FOMC minutes for September meeting. | Thu Oct 13 G20 finmins, central bankers meet. September CPI inflation rate figures. | Sun Oct 16 Chinese Communist party begins its five-yearly congress.

 

All eyes are on US inflation data for September after a hotter-than-expected reading in August tempered hopes of a nascent slowdown that might signal an end to rate hikes some time in the new year. 

 

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September rate-setting meeting will give clues into the central bank’s tolerance for economic pain after policy makers delivered a third straight 75 basis-point hike and signaled they’ll continue to tighten monetary conditions for now. 

 

The International Monetary Fund releases its latest World Economic Outlook as the lender and the World Bank hold annual meetings in Washington. In July, the IMF cut its global growth forecast for this year and next, warning that the world economy may soon be on the cusp of an outright recession.

 

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Week InReview: October 7, 2022

Going down.

Stocks in Asia are poised to open lower following declines in the US ahead of a pivotal monthly payrolls report. Equity futures for Australia, Japan and Hong Kong all declined after the S&P 500 sunk 1%. The US monthly jobs report is forecast to show employers added the fewest jobs in a month since late 2020. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials stressed support for extending the run of interest-rate hikes, highlighting the need to quash stubborn inflation. Almost half of US families surveyed by the Census Bureau found the recent rise in consumer prices to be “very stressful.”

 

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Week InAdvance: October 3, 2022

Mon Oct 3 FSOC meets on financial stability and energy. | Tue Oct 4 Jewish holiday Yom Kippur, or Day of Atonement. | Wed Oct 5 OPEC+. OECD green finance forum. | Fri Oct 7 US employment report for September.

 

 

Investors will get a fresh look at the US labor market when data on job creation and unemployment for September come out on Friday. The monthly payrolls report is expected to show another month of robust job creation in September and the unemployment rate holding near the lowest in 50 years.

 

The OPEC+ coalition meets Wednesday to decide its next move on oil output. The 23-nation alliance led by Riyadh has limited output over the past two years as economies recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, it’s facing growing calls to staunch the oil price slide by cutting production further.

 

Annual Nobel announcements start on Monday, with the Peace Prize being scheduled for Friday. The winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics will be announced on Oct. 10.

 

 

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