Briefings

Archive September 2022

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Week InReview: September 30, 2022

Loud and clear.

Federal Reserve officials reiterated that they will keep raising interest rates to restrain high inflation, as turmoil in Europe continued to fray investor nerves. It may have taken six months, but the Fed’s message is getting received loud and clear in the stock market where everyone from retail traders to smart-money speculators is pulling up stakes. The S&P500 fell as much as 2.9% overnight, while the Nasdaq 100 was dragged even lower by Apple, which took a 6.1% hit — equivalent to a $120 billion wipeout — after a rare analyst downgrade from Bank of America. The pain looks set to continue in Asia.

Week InAdvance: September 26, 2022

Mon Sep 26 Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year, is celebrated. | Tue Sep 27 Japan holds state funeral for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. | Wed Sep 28 US president hosts first US-Pacific Island Country summit in DC. | Thu Sep 29 Election of the lord mayor of the City of London. | Fri Sep 30 Deadline for US government shutdown. | Sat Oct 1 National Day to commemorate the founding of the People’s Republic of China, beginning the Golden Week national holiday. | Sun Oct 2 Daylight saving time begins in Australia.

 

Russia is moving swiftly to stage votes on annexing regions of Ukraine under its control. The so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, as well as occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, plan votes for several days through Tuesday just as Moscow plans to mobilize reservists in an escalation of the seven-month war.

 

Italians go to the polls on Sunday to elect their 70th government since the end of World War II, with a far-right coalition favored to win. 

 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits the Middle East as Europe’s biggest economy races to shore up energy supplies. OPEC’s World Oil Outlook is published on Tuesday, and EU energy ministers meet on Friday in Brussels for the second time in a month.  

Week InReview: September 23, 2022

No end in sight.

Housing paralysis engulfs US buyers with prices starting to fall. Photo: Jeremy Erickson | Bloomberg

This week’s blitz of interest rate hikes is unlikely to mark the end of a campaign by central banks to crush inflation even as they run the risk of driving their economies into recession. The biggest movers included Sweden’s Riksbank, which surprised with a mammoth 100 basis-point hike. Indonesia was more aggressive than expected and Vietnam surprised with a rare tightening. In the US, the Fed’s aggression has brought an abrupt end to the pandemic housing boom, with prices in decline and a looming paralysis in the market. Here’s what’s happening in housing markets in other parts of the world.

Week InAdvance: September 19, 2022

Mon Sep 19 IOSCO-ISSB sustainability disclosure roundtable. Climate Week NYC begins. | Tue Sep 20 FOMC 2-day meeting. CFTC' energy/environment panel meets. UK markets open and Parliament in session after Queen Elizabeth II's funeral. | Wed Sep 21 SEC's Investor Advisory Committee meets. FOMC rate decision and Powell news conference. | Thu Sep 22 Australian public holiday for a day of national mourning following the death of the Queen. | Fri Sep 23 FSOC holds closed meeting. Autumn Equinox in northern hemisphere.

 

Federal Reserve policy makers are expected to approve another jumbo interest-rate increase during a two-day meeting that wraps up on Wednesday, as they struggle to tamp down demand. The Bank of England is likely to follow suit on Thursday at a meeting delayed for a week. 

 

UK markets and government agencies are closed on Monday as the country welcomes global dignitaries for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, who died on Sept. 8 at age 96. The services will be streamed and broadcast around the world.

 

Even as a US looming rail strike may be narrowly averted, dockworkers at the UK’s Port of Liverpool are set to begin a two-week stoppage on Tuesday at the nation’s fourth-biggest gateway.

 

Week InReview: September 16, 2022

Global gloom.

The global economy may face a recession next year caused by an aggressive wave of policy tightening that could yet prove inadequate to temper inflation, the World Bank said in a new report. Policy makers around the world are rolling back monetary and fiscal support at a degree of synchronization not seen in half a century, the report said. The news comes as Federal Reserve officials prepare to meet next week, where they could find reasons for raising rates by a full percentage point. Most economists see a 75 basis points hike as a more likely outcome. After the Fed, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is expected to keep the central bank’s main policy levers unchanged.

Week InAdvance: September 12, 2022

Mon Sep 12 FSB outreach event. TV’s Emmy Awards. | Tue Sep 13 US CPI data for August. | Wed Sep 14 Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to Kazakhstan for a state visit. | Thu Sep 15 SEC's Gensler appears before Senate panel. US retail sales.

 

 

The death of Queen Elizabeth II, the longest-serving British monarch, at the age of 96 has set into motion a lengthy period of national mourning and preparations for her state funeral. The Bank of England on Friday postponed for a week an interest-rate decision scheduled for Sept. 15. 

 

Markets will be focused on US inflation data for August after price growth decelerated more than forecast in July. While an expected 8.1% rise in the consumer price index on the year would suggest inflation is cooling, the core measure that excludes food and fuel is seen accelerating. Tuesday’s CPI report is the last before Federal Reserve officials convene for their next policy meeting. 

 

President Xi Jinping will make his first foreign trip in more than two years, and is expected to meet Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan. 

 

The Emmy Awards – the US television industry’s highest honors – are broadcast live from Los Angeles on NBC and streamed for the first time on Peacock.  

Week InReview: September 9, 2022

"I have to be seen to be believed.'?

Paddington Bear pays emotional tribute to the Queen, moving fans to tears.

Queen Elizabeth II, whose reign took Britain from the age of steam to the era of the smartphone, and who oversaw the largely peaceful breakup of an empire that once spanned the globe has died at the age of 96. Read her full obituary here. Her death marks the start of a tumultuous 10 days for the UK that will see a nation – and the rest of the world – mourn its longest-reigning monarch. Within hours, Charles, the eldest of Elizabeth’s four children, will be formally proclaimed King Charles III in a ceremony dating back hundreds of years. Having lived most of her life in the public eye, the Queen leaves behind an unparalleled photographic record. Here, in pictures: the life of Queen Elizabeth II.

Week InAdvance: September 5, 2022

Mon Sep 5 US markets closed for Labor Day holiday. Opec+ meets to discuss oil supply. New UK prime minister to be announced| Tue Sep 6 US primary elections scheduled in Massachusetts. | Wed Sep 7 Fed's Beige Book. Apple ‘Far Out’ product launch. | Thu Sep 8 Fed's Powell speaks at Cato Institute. ECB rate decision, Lagarde briefing. | Fri Sep 9 EU finmins meet in Prague. | Sat Sep 10 China and Taiwan's Mid-Autumn (or Moon) Festival public holiday| Sun Sep 11 21st anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Russia's regional and local elections.

 

The new UK prime minister will be announced on Monday. The following day, Boris Johnson will step down and the Queen will officially appoint the new head of government. The UK’s next prime minister inherits an economy wracked by surging inflation, almost daily strike action and energy bills that will rise by 80% in October. 

 

On Thursday, the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by at least 50 basis points. ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference after the decision. 

 

The OPEC+ meeting on Monday attracts greater attention after Saudi Arabia openly floated the possibility of cuts to output, despite a simmering global energy crisis across the commodity complex and pressure from the US to increase supply. 

 

Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 14 lineup and its next slate of smart watches at a launch event on Wednesday,

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is to take part in a discussion on monetary policy at the Cato Institute on Thursday, less than two weeks before the central bank announces its next rate decision — and after his recent Jackson Hole comments sent stock prices reeling.  

 

Week InReview: September 2, 2022

Awaiting data.

Stocks in Asia look set for a cautious start following a jump in the dollar ahead of key US jobs data that could stir expectations for another sharp Federal Reserve interest-rate hike. Futures rose for Japan and Australia but slipped for Hong Kong. US contracts fluctuated after Wall Street snapped a four-day losing streak despite a slide in chip stocks on concerns that exports to China are imperiled by new US rules. Meanwhile shares of an obscure Chinese garment-maker listed in the US have plunged following a mysterious 13,000% gain.

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