Briefings

Archive August 2022

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Week InAdvance: August 29, 2022

Mon Aug 29 US Open tennis tournament starts in NYC. | Tue Aug 30 Markets are closed in London due to the UK’s summer bank holiday. | Wed Aug 31 Three-day Nord Stream pipeline shutdown. | Fri Sep 2 US employment report for August. UK leadership ballot closes.

 

After a blowout US jobs report for July, investors will get a fresh look at the nation’s labor market on Friday. Continuing strength may temper recession worries and allow the Federal Reserve to press on with steep interest-rate hikes. The monthly payrolls report is expected to show a gain of 300,000 jobs for August, while the unemployment rate is seen holding at 3.5%, matching a five-decade low.

 

On Wednesday, the euro zone reports inflation data for August. Consumer prices jumped 8.9% from a year earlier in July, overshooting expectations and climbing to another all-time high.

 

Several big Chinese banks report earnings in the coming week, and all eyes will be on any impact from the country’s property crisis and mortgage-payment boycott. The results come as some lenders employ practices to inflate loan volumes as they struggle to meet government demands to pump more credit into the system.

 

Week InReview: August 26, 2022

A hawkish or dovish Powell?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may have a very tough time meeting expectations that he will double down on a hawkish policy stance when he takes the podium on Friday morning at Jackson Hole to kick off the central bank’s annual symposium. There’s an argument to be made that he needs to overshoot given the way that markets continue to “fight the Fed” by hampering the central bank’s steepest interest-rate hikes in a generation. Read more.

Week InAdvance: August 22, 2022

Mon Aug 22 Prime minister campaign events in UK. | Tue Aug 23 European PMI data. | Wed Aug 24 G20 women's empowerment forum. | Thu Aug 25 Fed's econ summit at Jackson Hole. | Fri Aug 26 Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole. | Sun Aug 28 Anniversary of MLK's “I Have A Dream” speech.

 

All eyes are on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 26. Market watchers will look for clues on the central bank’s path after a red-hot jobs report and cooler-than-expected inflation data split bets on the size of the next rate hike.

 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, seen by the Kremlin as a “special operation” that would achieve its goal within days or weeks, hits the six-month mark on Ukraine Independence Day.

 

In Europe, manufacturing and services PMI data Tuesday will shed light on private-sector health and sentiment six months into Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Week InReview: August 19, 2022

Hard-to-read rate hike signals from Fed.

Stocks look set for a steady open as investors digest mixed policy from Federal Reserve officials amid a debate on whether they will tilt to less aggressive interest-rate hikes. Futures rose for Japan and Australia and were little changed for Hong Kong, after US shares closed up on thinner than usual volumes. Shorter maturities led a climb in Treasuries that left the two-year yield at about 3.20%. A dollar gauge hit the highest in more than three weeks.

Week InAdvance: August 15, 2022

With data pointing to high but slowing US inflation, the Federal Reserve is left to judge how much further rates must rise to get prices under control. On Wednesday, investors will get minutes from the central bank’s July meeting.
 
Walmart and Target led a list of retailers issuing profit warnings last month, shaking a sector that’s digging out from an inventory glut left over from the Covid pandemic. They report earnings this week, along with Home Depot, Lowe’s and China’s e-commerce and social networking giant Tencent. 
 
In the midst of Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades, Uniper SE of Germany reports earnings. The energy giant warned that it might have to cut output at two key coal-fired plants in Germany as it struggles to get fuel supplies along the Rhine River, whose water levels have fallen so low that it could effectively close soon.
 
Hedge funds’ 13F filings are due Monday after a bruising quarter for investors. 
 

Week InReview: August 12, 2022

Save your brain.
 
Illustration: Super Freak | Financial Times | ft.com
 
If you’re feeling drained at the end of a demanding day at the office, it could be you’ve been thinking too much. Researchers have found that too much use of the gray matter can lead to mental fatigue, making it harder to make decisions.
 
— Bloomberg Pursuits | Wellness

Week InAdvance: August 8, 2022

Markets are watching inflation readings from several countries to see whether price pressures have peaked. In the US, the consumer price index is projected to show an 8.8% annual gain in July after rising 9.1% the previous month. China, France, Germany and Brazil also release CPI data.

Week InReview: August 5, 2022

Recession recedes.
 
The odds of a recession in the US are tumbling, if a JPMorgan trading model is to be believed. With the exception of base metals, pricing of major markets suggest even odds, or less, after the US economy shrank for a second straight quarter. The S&P 500 implies a 51% probability of recession — down from 91% two months ago. But not everyone is convinced the worst is over. Here’s why the five gloomiest forecasters in a Bloomberg survey expect the US economy to keep shrinking
 
See also:
(Bloomberg Markets - Economics | Aug 1)

Week InAdvance: August 1, 2022

Mon Aug 1 Tory members begin voting in UK. | Tue Aug 2 Asean gathering. | Wed Aug 3 OPEC+ meeting on output. | Thu Aug 4 BOE rate decision. Climate change in the Senate. | Fri Aug 5 US payrolls report.
 
In a still-tight labor market, the monthly US payrolls report Friday is expected to show a gain of 250,000 jobs for July, while the unemployment rateis seen holding at 3.6%. 
 
The OPEC+ group of oil producers, which includes Russia, convenes to decide on output plans for September. Voting starts, and campaigning continues, in the UK’s race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 
 
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to be in the Asia-Pacific region, with an itinerary including stops in Indonesia, Japan and Singapore, according to people familiar with the situation. It’s unclear whether her visit will include Taiwan.

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